FPG USDJPY Market Report September 22, 2025

USDJPY is consolidating around 147.95 after last week’s volatility, with price action moving inside a supply zone capped near 148.18. The recent rebound was fueled by the Fed’s rate cut, which pressured the dollar initially before demand re-emerged. The yen remains relatively weak, keeping the pair supported, but buyers are struggling to clear overhead resistance.

The H4 chart shows price trading near the upper boundary of the Bollinger Bands, signaling bullish pressure in the short term. Parabolic SAR dots remain below the candles, indicating upward momentum. However, repeated rejections around 148.18 highlight supply pressure that could limit upside. On the downside, 147.35 provides short-term support, while the 146.60 level stands as a stronger demand zone.

Momentum indicators present mixed signals. The Stochastic Oscillator (5,3,3) is at 72.94 and nearing overbought territory, hinting at potential pullback risk. Meanwhile, MACD (12,26,9) shows a bullish crossover with a growing histogram, suggesting buying momentum remains intact despite the overbought conditions. This combination points to consolidation with a bullish tilt as long as 147.35 holds.

Market Observation & Strategy Advice
1. Current position: USDJPY traded around 147.95, consolidating inside a supply zone after the Fed-driven rebound.
2. Resistance Zone: 148.18 remains the key barrier; a break above could open room toward 148.80–149.00.
3. Support Zone: Immediate support lies at 147.35, followed by stronger demand at 146.60.
4. Indicators: Stochastic Oscillator at 72.94 signals overbought risk, while MACD bullish crossover reflects sustained buying momentum.
5. Trading Strategy Suggestions:

• Bullish Continuation: Buy above 148.18 with targets at 148.80–149.00, stop-loss below 147.50.
• Range Play: Consider selling near 148.18 if resistance holds, targeting 147.35–146.60.
• Risk Management: Watch for volatility spikes driven by Fed policy narratives and yen-related interventions.
  
  

Market Performance:
Forex   Last Price    % Change
EUR/USD     1.1737               −0.05%
GBP/USD    1.3471               +0.08%

Today’s Key Economic Calendar
CN: Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y
US: Chicago Fed National Activity Index
US: Fed Williams Speech
EU: Consumer Confidence Flash
US: Fed Barkin Speech