FPG USDJPY Market Report February 5, 2026

On the H4 timeframe, USDJPY previously experienced a sharp and impulsive decline from 159.22 down to 152.08, marking a clear bearish expansion phase. From that swing low, price action shifted structure, forming higher lows and higher highs that signaled a confirmed trend reversal. This recovery has since evolved into a well-defined bullish channel, with price currently trading around 156.88. As long as price remains supported within this ascending channel, the broader technical bias continues to favor the upside.

From an indicator perspective, multiple signals are aligned with the ongoing bullish structure. Price is trading above the midline of the Bollinger Bands and gradually expanding toward the upper band, indicating healthy bullish momentum rather than exhaustion. The Parabolic SAR dots are positioned below price, reinforcing trend-following bullish conditions and suggesting buyers remain in control. Fibonacci retracement drawn from the recent swing high to low shows price pushing above the 61.8% retracement, which often acts as a critical continuation zone in trending markets. The Bulls Power histogram has turned positive and is expanding, reflecting strengthening buying pressure after the prior bearish phase. Meanwhile, the Stochastic oscillator is hovering in the upper zone above 80, signaling strong momentum; although slightly overbought, it has not yet shown a decisive bearish crossover, implying momentum is strong but should be monitored for short-term pullback risks.

The recent and consistent strengthening of USDJPY has largely been driven by broad-based US dollar strength across global markets. Sentiment has shifted back in favor of the USD as investors reassess relative growth expectations and yield dynamics, despite the earlier sharp correction. Looking ahead, upcoming high-impact economic releases from both Japan and the United States are likely to act as the next volatility catalyst, potentially determining whether USDJPY extends its bullish channel or undergoes a corrective consolidation.

Market Observation & Strategy Advice
1. Current Position: USDJPY is trading around 156.88, maintaining its position within a well-defined bullish channel.
2. Resistance Zone: The nearest resistance is located around 159.22, followed by a higher barrier near 159.45.
3. Support Zone: Immediate support lies around 155.71, with stronger structural support near 152.85.
4. Indicator Observation: Stochastic Oscillator (5,3,3) is deep in overbought territory near 86, while Bulls Power (13) remains positive, confirming bullish dominance. Price action remains sensitive to USD strength and upcoming macro events, particularly US and Japanese economic releases.
5. Trading Strategy Suggestions:

• Trend-Continuation Bias: Favor buy-on-dip opportunities while price holds above the bullish channel support.
• Pullback Caution: Expect short-term consolidations or shallow pullbacks due to overbought momentum conditions.
• Event Risk Management: Tighten risk controls ahead of high-impact US and Japan press releases, as volatility may spike sharply.

Market Performance:
Forex            Last Price      % Change
EUR/USD       1.1802              −0.03%
GBP/USD      1.3649             +0.07%

Today’s Key Economic Calendar:
US: Fed Cook Speech
AU: Balance of Trade
DE: Factory Orders MoM
UK: S&P Global Construction PMI
EU: Retail Sales MoM
UK: BoE Interest Rate Decision
UK: BoE Monetary Policy Report
UK: BoE MPC Vote (Cut, Hike, & Unchanged)
UK: MPC Meeting Minutes
EU: Deposit Facility Rate
EU: ECB Interest Rate Decision
US: Initial Jobless Claims
EU: ECB Press Conference
US: JOLTs Job Openings
US: Fed Bostic Speech