FPG USDCAD Market Report February 18, 2026

On the USDCAD H4 chart, price initially formed a strong bearish rally from 1.3844 down to 1.3481, establishing clear downside momentum. A bullish rebound followed, leading to sideways consolidation between 1.3619 and 1.3723, closely aligned with the Fibonacci 38.2%–61.8% retracement zone. Price later declined again to 1.3503, where a firm bounce occurred, signaling a potential trend reversal. Currently, price is trading around 1.3639 and remains within a developing bullish channel, indicating a strengthening short-term structure.

From a technical perspective, Bollinger Bands indicate that price has rebounded from the lower band near 1.3503 and is now advancing toward the mid-to-upper band area, suggesting expanding volatility and strengthening bullish momentum. The MFI (14) is hovering around 78, reflecting strong buying pressure and solid capital inflow; however, its proximity to the overbought zone signals the possibility of a minor pullback. Meanwhile, Bulls Power remains above the zero line and is gradually expanding, confirming that buyers are maintaining control and that upside momentum remains intact in the near term.

Fundamentally, USDCAD remains influenced by policy divergence between the Federal Reserve’s higher-for-longer stance and the Bank of Canada’s potential rate-cut cycle. A relatively tighter U.S. monetary outlook continues to support the USD, while expectations of easing from the BoC may weigh on the CAD. Additionally, Canada’s heavy reliance on crude oil exports makes the Canadian dollar sensitive to fluctuations in global energy markets. Ongoing supply adjustments by OPEC+ and softer Chinese demand expectations create uncertainty in oil prices, which in turn may drive volatility in USDCAD.

Market Observation & Strategy Advice
1. Current Position: USDCAD (H4) is trading around 1.3639, maintaining a short-term bullish structure after rebounding from 1.3503. Price remains within an ascending channel, supported by improving momentum indicators.
2. Resistance Zone: Immediate resistance is located at 1.3723, aligned with the previous consolidation ceiling and near the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement. A break above this level could open the path toward 1.3844.
3. Support Zone: Nearest support stands at 1.3619 (Fibonacci 38.2%), followed by stronger support at 1.3503, the recent swing low and key reversal point.
4. Indicator Observation: Bollinger Bands show expanding volatility with price moving toward the upper band. MFI (14) is near overbought territory, indicating strong buying pressure but potential short-term pullback risk. Bulls Power remains positive, reflecting sustained buyer control.
5. Trading Strategy Suggestions:

• Bullish Continuation: Buy on dips near 1.3619 while price holds above 1.3503, targeting 1.3723 and potentially 1.3844 on a confirmed breakout.
• Breakout Setup: Consider breakout entries if price closes firmly above 1.3723, supported by rising momentum and volume confirmation.
• Bearish Risk Scenario: If price breaks and sustains below 1.3503, shift bias to bearish, targeting lower support levels as the bullish channel structure would be invalidated.

Market Performance:
Forex            Last Price         % Change
EUR/USD       1.1845                 −0.08%
USD/JPY       153.32                 +0.05%

Today’s Key Economic Calendar:
US: Fed Barr & Daly Speech
JP: Balance of Trade
JP: Exports YoY
UK: Core Inflation Rate YoY
UK: Inflation Rate MoM & YoY
US: MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate
US: Building Permits (Preliminary)
US: Durable Goods Orders MoM
US: Housing Starts
US: Industrial Production MoM