FPG EURUSD Market Report September 16, 2025

EURUSD is currently trading around 1.1759, holding within a consolidation zone while moving along the rising trendline from August. Price action has been repeatedly testing the resistance area between 1.1777 – 1.1828, but so far, buyers have been unable to secure a decisive breakout. This indicates strong selling pressure at higher levels, even though the broader structure still leans bullish as long as the trendline remains intact.

Momentum indicators are showing mixed signals. The MFI (14) stands at 58, suggesting neutral-to-bullish pressure without signs of overbought conditions. The Parabolic SAR remains positioned below price, supporting the short-term bullish outlook. Meanwhile, Bollinger Bands are moderately squeezed, signaling that volatility is contracting and a breakout move could be approaching.

Key technical levels are well-defined. On the upside, resistance lies at 1.1777 – 1.1828, and a breakout above this zone could open the door to fresh bullish momentum. On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1715, with stronger support at 1.1391 if the rising trendline fails. Overall, EURUSD remains in a neutral-to-bullish stance, but traders should watch closely for a breakout confirmation to determine the next major move.

Market Observation & Strategy Advice
1. Current Position: EURUSD is trading near 1.1759, consolidating within a narrowing range along the rising trendline. The pair is testing the upper boundary but has yet to confirm a breakout.
2. Resistance Zone: Strong resistance is seen between 1.1777 – 1.1828, where sellers have repeatedly capped bullish attempts. A clear break above this zone may trigger fresh upside momentum.
3. Support Zone: Immediate support is at 1.1715, aligning with the rising trendline. A deeper pullback could test 1.1391, which marks a stronger demand area.
4. Indicators: The Money Flow Index (14) is currently at 58, showing neutral-to-bullish pressure without overbought conditions. Bulls Power (13) remains positive but not strong, suggesting momentum is still developing. The Parabolic SAR continues to print below the price, maintaining a short-term bullish bias.
5. Trading Strategy Suggestions:

• Bullish Scenario: If EURUSD holds above 1.1715 and breaks 1.1777 – 1.1828 with volume, buyers could aim for 1.1900+, confirmed by bullish candles or SAR support.
• Bearish Scenario: A failure at 1.1777 – 1.1828 and break below 1.1715 may open downside toward 1.1600 and 1.1391, especially if MFI weakens and SAR flips above price.
• Neutral/Range Scenario: While capped under 1.1828 and supported at 1.1715, price may stay range-bound, favoring short-term buy-low/sell-high trades until a breakout.
  
  

Market Performance:
Forex            Last Price % Change
GBP/USD    1.3600            +0.01%
USD/JPY     147.43            +0.06%

Today’s Key Economic Calendar:
UK: Unemployment Rate
DE: ZEW Economic Sentiment Index
CA: Inflation Rate YoY
US: Retail Sales MoM