FPG EURUSD Market Report January 8, 2026

On the H1 timeframe, EURUSD has been moving within a well-defined bearish channel after failing to hold above the 1.1807 area, forming a clear sequence of lower highs and lower lows. A decisive breakout occurred as price broke below the diagonal support around the critical 1.1698 zone, with strong selling pressure pushing the pair through the lower boundary of the channel and down to a low near 1.1658. After briefly trading outside the bearish structure, price staged a corrective pullback and moved back into the channel. Currently, EURUSD is trading around 1.1676, with 1.1658 acting as a crucial support level and 1.1742 standing as the main resistance zone.

From a technical perspective, the recent rebound appears corrective rather than trend-changing, as price remains capped below the descending channel resistance and the horizontal supply area near 1.1742. The failure to reclaim the broken diagonal support reinforces the bearish market structure, suggesting that sellers remain in control. Price action continues to respect the bearish channel dynamics, with each recovery facing renewed selling pressure. Momentum indicators support this bearish bias. MACD (12,26,9) remains below the zero line, indicating that downside momentum is still dominant despite a slight reduction in bearish histogram intensity. The Money Flow Index (14) is hovering around the mid-range, signaling weak buying interest and the absence of strong accumulation. Overall, indicator behavior suggests that bearish momentum is stabilizing but not reversing, keeping downside risks intact.

From a fundamental perspective, EURUSD remains closely tied to ongoing global macro developments, particularly differences in monetary policy expectations and economic performance between the U.S. and the eurozone. The U.S. dollar continues to draw support from relatively resilient economic data and a cautious Federal Reserve stance, while the euro remains under pressure amid slower growth and subdued inflation in the euro area, reinforcing expectations for a more accommodative ECB. Combined with a cautious global risk environment, these factors help explain the persistent bearish bias in EURUSD, as investors continue to favor the dollar while remaining cautious toward the euro.

Market Observation & Strategy Advice
1. Current Position: EURUSD is currently trading around 1.1676, stabilizing inside the bearish channel after a corrective rebound.
2. Resistance Zone: Key resistance is located at 1.1742, aligned with the upper channel boundary and previous breakdown area.
3. Support Zone: Immediate support is around 1.1658, where a previous pullback occurred and which also aligns with the current diagonal support.
4. Indicators: MACD remains below zero, confirming bearish momentum, while MFI reflects neutral-to-weak buying pressure. As long as price stays below 1.1742 and within the descending channel, the broader trend remains bearish.
5. Trading Strategy Suggestions:

• Sell-on-rally setup: Consider short positions near the 1.1720–1.1742 resistance zone, targeting 1.1658 and potentially 1.1558.
• Breakdown continuation: A confirmed H1 close below 1.1658 could open further downside acceleration.
• Invalidation level: A sustained break and hold above 1.1720-1.1807 would invalidate the bearish structure.

Market Performance:
Forex           Last Price       % Change
USD/JPY      156.79               +0.03%
GBP/USD     1.3458               +0.01%

Today’s Key Economic Calendar:
US: Fed Bowman Speech
AU: Balance of Trade
JP: Consumer Confidence
DE: Factory Orders MoM
UK: Halifax House Price Index MoM & YoY
EU: Economic Sentiment
EU: Unemployment Rate
US: Balance of Trade
CA: Balance of Trade
US: Exports & Imports
US: Initial Jobless Claims
US: Nonfarm Productivity QoQ Prel
US: Unit Labour Costs QoQ Prel