FPG EURUSD Market Report February 4, 2026

On the H4 timeframe, EURUSD is showing a clear trend reversal structure, shifting from a strong bullish rally into a developing bearish phase. The previous bullish move pushed price from the 1.1576 area to a peak around 1.2082, but this rally failed to sustain as strong rejection emerged near the top. Since then, price action has weakened and transitioned into a bearish channel, with the current price trading around 1.1815, reflecting moderate but persistent downside pressure.

From a price structure perspective, EURUSD is now forming a sequence of lower highs and lower lows, reinforcing the bearish reversal narrative. Price continues to trade below the descending channel resistance while struggling to regain bullish momentum. The Bollinger Band structure shows price leaning toward the lower half of the range, suggesting sellers are still dominant despite short-term consolidations. Momentum indicators are also starting to align with the bearish bias. Stochastic Oscillator (5,3,3) is recovering from oversold territory but remains vulnerable to rejection below the upper range, indicating that upside attempts may remain corrective in nature. Meanwhile, MFI (14) is hovering around 31.8, reflecting weak capital inflow and limited buying interest, which supports the idea that bullish momentum remains fragile.

Overall momentum suggests EURUSD is in a corrective-to-bearish transition phase rather than a healthy consolidation. As long as price remains below the previous rejection zone near 1.1996, upside potential is likely to be capped. Short-term rebounds may occur, but the broader outlook favors further downside continuation unless a strong bullish catalyst emerges.

Market Observation & Strategy Advice
1. Current Position: EURUSD is trading around 1.1815, stabilizing within a bearish channel structure.
2. Resistance Zone: Nearest resistance is located around 1.1996, followed by a stronger supply zone near 1.2082.
3. Support Zone: Immediate support sits near 1.1775, with further downside risk toward 1.1576 if selling pressure intensifies.
4. Indicator Observation: Stochastic Oscillator (5,3,3) is rebounding from oversold levels, while MFI (14) around 31.8 signals weak buying participation. EURUSD movements remain sensitive to USD strength and cross-asset correlations.
5. Trading Strategy Suggestions:

• Trend-Following Setup: Favor sell-on-rally scenarios near resistance zones while price remains below the bearish channel top.
• Pullback Management: Treat bullish pullbacks as corrective moves unless supported by strong volume expansion.
• Event Risk Awareness: Tighten risk management ahead of high-impact economic releases, as volatility may spike sharply.

Market Performance:
Forex            Last Price         % Change
USD/JPY       156.06                +0.23%
GBP/USD      1.3693                 −0.01%

Today’s Key Economic Calendar:
US: API Crude Oil Stock Change
AU: Ai Group Industry Index
CN: NPC Standing Committee Meeting
CN: RD Services PMI
AU: RBA Jones Speech
EU: Core Inflation Rate YoY Flash
EU: Inflation Rate MoM & YoY Flash
US: MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate
US: ADP Employment Change
US: ISM Services PMI
US: EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change