IMF Projects Global Economy to Grow in 2024. International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised upwards its estimates for global economic growth in 2024 in its latest economic outlook. In the January 2024 World Economic Outlook report released Tuesday (30/1/2024), the IMF revised its global economic growth projection to 3.1% in 2024.
This projection is up 0.2 percentage points from the previous report. Growth projections in 2024 tend to be stagnant compared to 2023, where the IMF estimates the global economy will grow 3.1%. in 2025, the IMF estimates the economy will grow 3.2%.
IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said the global economy was starting to enter the final stage towards a soft landing because inflation continued to decline and economic growth remained solid. However, the growth rate is still slow, and turbulence may still occur. However, projected global growth in 2024 and 2025 is still below the historical (2000-2019) annual average of 3.8%.
The IMF expects countries to see growth decline in 2024 before picking up in 2025, with a recovery in the eurozone and growth moderating in the US. Emerging market and developing countries are expected to experience stable growth until 2024 and 2025, with differences in each region.
IMF Projects Global Economy to Grow in 2024. Gourinchas said global inflation is expected to fall to 5.8% in 2024 and 4.4% in 2025. The 2025 projection was revised down from previous estimates.
He continued, the risks to global growth are currently balanced. On the positive side, faster disinflation could ease financial conditions, while looser-than-expected fiscal policy could spur growth for a while, albeit at the risk of a more expensive adjustment later.
However, Gourinchas also warned that risks of declining growth still exist, including the potential for new commodity price spikes due to geopolitical shocks. Persistent inflation, continued weakness in China’s property sector, or a disruptive shift in tax increases and spending cuts.