Weekly Market Review: April 6–10, 2026 (SGT) Geopolitical Risks and US Inflation Data Drive Volatility
The Market this week saw a significant market volatility driven by ongoing geopolitical tensions and mixed economic data from the United States. As traders navigated uncertainty surrounding the US-Israel-Iran conflict and inflation indicators, asset performance varied widely. A abbreviated Friday trading session drew to a close amid notable shifts across major currencies and commodities, as escalating geopolitical risks continued to rattle investor confidence, leaving market participants closely monitoring the rapidly evolving landscape.
Key Takeaways:
- Geopolitical tensions from the US-Israel-Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruptions kept oil prices elevated, with WTI crude holding above $98/BBL, while risk-off sentiment weighed on broader markets throughout the week.
- The USD firmed into Friday’s close, supported by higher Treasury yields, safe-haven demand, and pre-CPI positioning, while AUD and NZD emerged as the weakest majors amid RBNZ hold and China-linked headwinds.
- Gold and Silver pulled back on Friday (-0.95% and -1.18% respectively) as ceasefire optimism faded initial safe-haven bids, with both precious metals remaining sensitive to USD strength and yield movements.
- Bitcoin traded range-bound near $71,994, posting modest intraday recoveries on ceasefire short squeezes, while Ethereum slightly outperformed amid steady layer-2 activity and Clarity Act developments.
- US CPI and Canada Employment Change were the critical Friday catalysts, with sticky inflation signals continuing to cap Fed rate-cut expectations and shape near-term market positioning.
SUMMARY TABLE
| Asset/Event | Key Developments | Market Impact |
|---|---|---|
| USD | Mixed early-week pressure (Powell exit/tariff uncertainty); firmed Friday on heatmap (+0.09% to +0.31% vs majors except CNY) | Supported by yields; risk-off flows |
| EUR/GBP | EUR -0.09% vs USD; GBP mixed but soft vs commodity currencies | Underperformed on USD strength |
| AUD/NZD/CAD | AUD/NZD weak (-0.20%/-0.20% vs USD); CAD resilient pre-employment data | Commodity sensitivity + RBNZ decision |
| JPY/CHF | Safe-haven bids but capped; JPY +0.12% vs USD Friday | Limited carry unwind |
| Key Econ Events | ISM Services PMI (Mon); RBNZ OCR (Tue); FOMC Minutes (Wed); Core PCE/GDP (Thu); US CPI + Canada Employment (Fri) | Inflation focus; data mixed |
| Commodities | Oil +0.87% Fri (ongoing Hormuz risks); Gold/Silver -0.95%/-1.18%; Copper slight + | Energy spike vs precious metals correction |
| Crypto | BTC ~71,994 (+24h green); ETH ~2,191; XRP/SOL/BNB modest gains | Risk-on recovery amid ceasefire noise |
| Geopolitics | Iran conflict ongoing; Strait disruptions; ceasefire hopes fade | Risk-off sentiment; oil premium |
WEEKLY OVERVIEW
Geopolitical tensions dominated the week, with the US-Israel Iran conflict (ongoing since late February) and Strait of Hormuz disruptions sustaining elevated oil prices and risk-off flows. Central banks flagged geopolitics as the top global risk. US data showed resilient growth (strong March employment) but sticky inflation signals, capping rate-cut expectations. Risk sentiment remained cautious overall, with equities rebounding modestly early week on ceasefire optimism before fading. USD exhibited two-way volatility before Friday firmness; commodities diverged (energy strength vs precious metals consolidation); crypto traded sideways with minor recovery.
FOREX (8 MAJOR CURRENCIES)
USD: Mixed early-week pressure from Powell tenure uncertainty and tariff scrutiny; firmed Friday (+0.09–0.31% vs most majors). Drivers: higher yields, geopolitical safe-haven demand, and pre-CPI positioning. Sentiment: bullish into close. Upcoming: US CPI reaction (Friday NY session).
EUR: Weakened vs USD (-0.09% Friday); limited upside from Eurozone data. Drivers: relative USD strength and ECB caution amid global risks. Sentiment: bearish. No major Friday events.
GBP: Soft vs USD (-0.06% Friday) but held vs EUR. Drivers: UK data resilience offset by broader risk-off and USD moves. Sentiment: mixed. No major Friday events.
JPY: Modest safe-haven support but capped (+0.12% vs USD Friday). Drivers: BoJ intervention fears around 160 and geopolitical flows. Sentiment: neutral-bullish. No major Friday events.
CHF: Stable safe-haven (+0.16% vs USD Friday). Drivers: Swiss National Bank tone and risk-off. Sentiment: mildly bullish.
CAD: Resilient (+0.09% vs USD Friday) ahead of employment data. Drivers: oil strength and domestic PMI. Sentiment: neutral-positive. Canada Employment Change (Friday 15:30 GMT+3).
AUD: Weakest major (-0.20% vs USD Friday). Drivers: RBNZ hold, commodity sensitivity, and China data. Sentiment: bearish.
NZD: Underperformed (-0.20% vs USD Friday). Drivers: RBNZ OCR decision and global risk. Sentiment: bearish.
COMMODITIES
Gold: Corrected -0.95% Friday (at 4,772.2 USD/APZ). Weekly drivers: initial safe-haven bids from Iran conflict faded on ceasefire hopes; yields weighed. Correlation: inverse USD/yields. Outlook: consolidation into Friday close.
Silver: -1.18% Friday (75.535 USD/APZ). Weekly drivers: industrial demand offset by precious metals rotation; technical selling. Correlation: risk sentiment + gold. Outlook: vulnerable on any USD strength.
Oil (WTI): +0.87% Friday (98.72 USD/BBL). Weekly drivers: persistent Hormuz/ Iran disruptions sustained premium despite ceasefire noise. Correlation: direct geopolitics/risk-off. Outlook: remains supported into Friday NY close.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin (BTC): ~71,994 USD (positive 24h; green heatmap). Weekly performance: sideways-to-modest recovery (~+4% intraday peaks on ceasefire short squeeze); overall range-bound. Major news: low volatility, contrarian signals, no major ETF flows/hacks. Sentiment: cautious recovery.
Ethereum (ETH): ~2,191 USD. Weekly performance: modest gains, slightly outperformed BTC. Major news: layer-2 activity steady; Clarity Act focus. Sentiment: neutral-positive.
Top 3 additional (by volatility/news):
- XRP: Modest gains; regulatory clarity in focus. Sentiment: stable.
- SOL: Recovery in altcoin rotation. Sentiment: mildly bullish.
- BNB: Steady ecosystem flows. Sentiment: neutral.
MACRO & GEOPOLITICS
Geopolitical risks escalated as top central-bank concern (70% of surveyed institutions); Iran conflict and energy infrastructure damage sustained uncertainty. Inflation/labor: resilient US employment but sticky wages; March CPI (Friday) critical. Growth: mixed PMIs; Q1 GDP revisions soft. Central banks: RBNZ hold; FOMC Minutes signaled “wait-and-see”. Completed: ISM Services, Durable Goods, Core PCE. Upcoming (Friday): US CPI, Canada Employment.
WHAT TO WATCH (CRITICAL)
Completed (Mon–Thu + partial Friday Asia/Europe): ISM Services PMI, RBNZ OCR + guidance, FOMC Minutes, Core PCE/GDP, early CPI positioning. Upcoming (Friday London/NY sessions): US CPI m/m (high-impact inflation read), Canada Employment Change. No major weekend geopolitical events flagged, but Iran developments remain live risk.
CONCLUSION
Overall market tone: cautious with late-week USD firmness. Risk sentiment remained muted amid persistent geopolitical premium and inflation vigilance. Positioning into next week: selective USD longs, energy longs, and crypto consolidation; watch Friday inflation prints for directional conviction. The interplay between safe-haven demand and Geopolitical Risks sentiment shaped movements across major currencies and commodities. As traders continue to navigate these complexities, upcoming economic reports will be closely monitored for insights into future market directions.
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People Also Ask
What are the current geopolitical risks affecting the market?
Geopolitical risks include the ongoing US-Israel-Iran conflict and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, which are contributing to elevated oil prices and market volatility.
How is inflation data impacting investor sentiment?
Mixed economic data from the US, particularly sticky inflation signals, is capping expectations for Fed rate cuts and creating cautious investor sentiment.
What has been the performance of cryptocurrencies amid geopolitical tensions?
Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum have shown some resilience, with Bitcoin trading around $71,994 and Ethereum outperforming slightly due to ongoing market activities.
Why are central banks focusing on geopolitical risks?
Central banks have identified geopolitical risks as a primary concern due to their potential impact on global markets and economic stability.
How is the USD performing against other currencies?
The USD has firmed against most major currencies due to higher Treasury yields and safe-haven demand, while currencies like AUD and NZD have weakened.